Bitcoin (BTC) becomes rarer after each halving. However, the next halving, which will take place in the next four days, will make Bitcoin twice as valuable as gold, according to analysts of the leading cryptocurrency exchange Bybit. This may increase the rarity of Bitcoin, thus affecting its price upwards. Bybit analysts have prepared a report on what to expect before and after the Bitcoin halving. The report predicts that Bitcoin may experience a supply squeeze after the halving and that reserves in all centralized exchanges may be exhausted within nine months.

Bybit states that Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model confirms these claims. According to this model, after each halving, Bitcoin becomes more scarce than gold. The S2F rate is calculated by dividing the circulating supply of a commodity by its annual production. This rate shows us how scarce that commodity is. As of writing, Bitcoin’s S2F ratio is around 56, while gold’s ratio is 60. However, after the upcoming halving, Bitcoin’s ratio is expected to rise to 112. This shows that Bitcoin will become twice as scarce compared to gold.

Halving slows supply by halving Bitcoin production. This could inevitably lead to a supply crunch. There are currently signals that there is an early squeeze in the Bitcoin market, which is expected to worsen after the halving.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) typically source Bitcoin from centralized exchanges. Bitcoin flows into exchanges as investors realize their profitable positions and miners sell their block rewards. However, with the halving, mining rewards will decrease and investors will tend to store their assets in cold wallets or decentralized wallets. This will prevent miners from selling quickly and reduce the supply of Bitcoin flowing to exchanges.

Currently, Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges are around two million. Assuming that Spot Bitcoin ETFs have a daily net inflow of $500 million, there will be a daily outflow of approximately 7,142 BTC from these reserves. Based on this calculation, current reserves are estimated to last only nine months after the halving.

“With this in mind, it would not be surprising if the price continues to rise even before or after the halving, as the supply squeeze will push the Bitcoin price towards another record,” Bybit analysts say.

Although halvings have been known to trigger Bitcoin price increases in the past, analysts emphasize that this cycle is complex. Since Bitcoin has already recorded a new high, uncertainty remains about what the impact of the upcoming impact will be. Some analysts think the post-halving rally may be less strong than those in the past.

However, market experts predict a different scenario this time. They believe that as spot Bitcoin ETFs reach their full potential, demand could drive the Bitcoin price increase after the halving.