After talks with the SEC in recent weeks, US issuers and other firms expect the regulator to reject spot Ether ETF applications in May. Citing four sources who participated in these talks, it is stated that recent meetings followed a one-sided course and SEC officials did not discuss concrete details about the proposed products. This development increases uncertainty in the market by reducing investors’ expectations for spot ETF approval.

Over the past few weekends, the Ethereum price has experienced sudden waves of volatility, but this volatility has been quickly followed by a recovery phase. This situation continues to unsettle investors. On April 20, the price briefly dropped 2.25% to $3,036. The ETH price, which experienced a sharper decline the previous weekend, on April 13, fell to $ 2,950 but later recovered to $ 3,075.

CoinGlass data strikingly reveals the extent of potential liquidations in case similar price movements occur again. Even a drop of just 2.25% from the current price could lead to $510 million in long position liquidation. On the other hand, a deeper price movement similar to the 9% decline seen last weekend could lead to the liquidation of $853 million. This amount can create a domino effect in the markets.

The Ethereum ecosystem faces broader uncertainty due to the delay in spot ETF approval, as well as the ongoing legal battle over its classification as a security. Software development company Consensys sued the commission on April 25, alleging that the SEC plans to regulate ETH as a security. This case brings to the fore the ongoing debate about the regulatory status of crypto assets.

High potential liquidation risk and ongoing uncertainties may create volatility in the Ethereum market. Investors will closely follow developments regarding the SEC decision next weekend and throughout May. Diminishing spot ETF approval hopes and potential liquidation concerns could impact the Ethereum price downwards in the short term. However, in the long term, the expansion of Ethereum’s usage areas and network developments may pave the way for positive price movements.

In light of these uncertainties, it would be useful to evaluate different scenarios about what may happen in the Ethereum market next weekend. If a similar price volatility occurs in the upcoming weekend and there is only a 2.25% decrease from the current price, a liquidation wave of $ 510 million may occur, according to CoinGlass data. This may cause panic in the market, triggering further liquidation and creating a downward spiral effect on the price. On the other hand, the market may not show sudden volatility as in the past and may remain relatively stable throughout the weekend. In this case, the liquidation risk is reduced and investors can wait for the SEC decision in a calmer environment.