US Unemployment Report: Bitcoin Price Increased
The Bitcoin price rose 1% after the report was released, but remains about 5% lower than it was a week ago.
U.S. labor force growth fell slightly below expectations in August, but it doesn’t appear weak enough to trigger the Federal Reserve to begin a 50 basis point rate-cutting cycle later this month.
The U.S. added 142,000 jobs in August, according to the Nonfarm Payrolls report released by the government Friday morning. That figure is lower than economist estimates of 160,000 and July’s 89,000 (revised from a previously announced 114,000). The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, which was in line with expectations and down from 4.3% in July.
The price of bitcoin (BTC), which had dropped significantly before the report was released, rose by approximately 1% to $56,500 within minutes after the report was announced. However, the price remains 5% lower than the levels a week ago.
Looking at traditional markets, US stock index futures are trimming early big losses; The Nasdaq is now trading down just 0.5%, following a previous decline of more than 1%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury fell 5 basis points to 3.68% and the dollar index fell 0.3%. Gold was up 0.5% at $2,557 per ounce, approaching an all-time high.
Jobs numbers, always an important data point, have taken on extra importance as the Federal Reserve is set to begin cutting interest rates in mid-September.
The conventional wisdom was that the US central bank would begin this cycle of monetary policy easing cautiously, cutting the benchmark federal funds rate by just 25 basis points. However, it is thought that a 50 basis point rate cut could be prompted by the Fed’s weak August employment report.
The headline numbers from this report do not provide a strong case for a 50 basis point move. The downward revisions in July (114K to 89K) and June (179K to 118K) data are a bit concerning. Quarterly average job growth is just 116,000, which may be a figure that will feature prominently in the Fed’s discussions.
When we look at other report details, a slightly stronger picture emerges. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in August; This rate is above expectations of 0.3% and the 0.1% drop in July. On an annual basis, average hourly earnings increased by 3.8%, above expectations of 3.7% and above July’s 3.6%.
“This is a solid, but not spectacular, report that largely confirms the current cooling trend,” economist Joe Brusuelas commented immediately after the report was released. He noted that the details support a 25 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed.