Decentralized prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular in anticipation of election results. In the prediction market, the probability of Trump winning the election has increased rapidly compared to Harris.

According to leading forecasting platform Polymarket, Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential election outpaced Harris’ odds by 13 points as of October 15.

This trend turned in favor of Trump on October 4, marking a complete reversal of predictions in favor of Harris in September. By October 12, Trump had a lead of over 10 points over Harris.

It is argued that decentralized prediction markets can provide more accurate results than traditional survey methods. Billionaire Elon Musk is also one of those who agree with this view and has recently increased his support for former Republican president Trump.

Musk argues that the decentralized structure of prediction markets and the ability of users to take positions directly based on market expectations can provide more accurate results in predicting election results.

Trump is generally viewed by the crypto world as an innovation-friendly candidate. However, some investors worry that blockchain innovations could be stifled by stricter regulations if Harris becomes president.

It is thought that Harris could support tougher regulatory approaches, which could suppress innovation in the crypto world.

Although the crypto industry has shown great interest in the 2024 US presidential elections, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that the elections may not have a significant impact on Bitcoin.

Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said that Bitcoin has become an asset class independent of global politics and therefore, the US presidential elections will not make a big difference on Bitcoin.

On the third quarter 2024 earnings call, Fink stated that the use of digital assets will become more widespread globally. According to Fink, Bitcoin and crypto adoption will be primarily about liquidity and transparency rather than regulations.

This means that the acceptance and use of cryptocurrencies will evolve based on market dynamics rather than government policies.

As the US presidential elections approach, interest in prediction markets is increasing rapidly. In the third quarter of 2024, betting volume in prediction markets increased by 565.4%, reaching $3.1 billion in the three largest markets. Much of this growth comes from betting on the US presidential election.

According to the CoinGecko report dated October 14, prediction markets gained momentum as the elections approached, and investors who closely followed the race between Trump and Harris made their predictions on these platforms.

Polymarket, the leader in decentralized prediction platforms, had a market share of over 99% as of September, with 46% of the platform’s year-to-date volume coming from betting on the US presidential election.

This shows that decentralized prediction markets are becoming increasingly effective in election predictions. The interest in these markets is considered a new way to predict election results, and more investors are expected to turn to these markets in the coming period.