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Monday 23 March 2026
Policy & Regulation | November 5, 2024 | BitBulteni

Reverse Cramer Effect: Trump's Victory Expected

Reverse Cramer Effect: Trump's Victory Expected

Some crypto investors believe that Donald Trump will emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential election due to the "reverse Cramer" effect, following television host Jim Cramer's prediction of Kamala Harris' victory.

In an evaluation he made on November 4, Cramer examined the performance of the stock market and stated that market movements showed increasing confidence in Harris’ victory in the 2024 presidential elections.

“I’m not sure the market is right about what a Harris presidency will mean for business, but at least Wall Street now has a plan for what it will mean,” Cramer said.

However, some investors are using Cramer’s prediction of a Harris victory to predict a Trump win in light of the “reverse Cramer” effect, where the opposite of Cramer’s predictions has historically been known to occur.

Cramer’s prediction came a day before election day in the United States. Cryptocurrencies have become an important political focus for the first time in this election. The reverse Cramer trend led to the creation of an exchange-traded fund (ETF) aimed at shorting Cramer’s stock recommendations.

However, this ETF only lasted 10 months and closed with a negative return of 15% since its opening, attracting an investment of $2.4 million. This shows that Cramer’s predictions are not always wrong.

Polymarket rates turned in favor of Trump on October 4, marking a sharp reversal seen in September. As of October 12, Trump appeared to have a 10-point lead over Harris in the polls.

Additionally, large investors known as Polymarket whales continue to bet millions of dollars on Trump’s victory, including on election day.

On November 5, an unidentified whale, the “walletmobile,” deposited almost $5 million worth of USD Coins on Polymarket in support of Trump. According to Lookonchain data, this whale had already placed a bet of $2.8 million.

Additionally, “zxgngl,” known as Polymarket’s biggest Trump supporter, withdrew an additional $3.1 million worth of USDC for Trump bets on November 5. This mystery whale is worth more than $18.5 million on “Yes” votes for Trump and has a current unrealized profit of over $528,000.

On October 28, it was revealed that four of the six largest Trump voting accounts on Polymarket were controlled by the same entity called “Fredi9999”, which had bought more than $20 million in “Yes” shares by October 18, pushing Trump’s odds above 60.2%. had reported.

However, trading patterns indicate that the “zxgngl” account is unrelated to the Polymarket accounts controlled by Fredi. This mystery whale has become the biggest Trump bettor with over 29.4 million “Yes” shares on Polymarket, surpassing all accounts associated with Fredi.

Cramer’s predictions and the reactions of crypto investors have fueled discussions about the uncertainty of the upcoming elections and the possibility of Trump winning. It is eagerly awaited what role cryptocurrencies will play in this political environment.

Tags: TrumpHarrisCramerTers Cramer etkisiKripto yatırımlarıPolymarket2024 seçimleriYatırımcı tepkileriHisse senedi tahminleri

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