Prediction markets experienced major growth in the third quarter of 2024 as betting on the US presidential election soared. Because these elections could have significant impacts on cryptocurrency regulations, movements in the prediction markets have attracted widespread attention.

According to CoinGecko’s report dated October 14, betting volume in prediction markets increased by 565.4% in the third quarter from $463.3 million in the second quarter of 2024 to $3.1 billion.

The report shows the increase in bets on the results of the US presidential elections as the reason for this huge increase. It is stated that prediction markets have gained serious momentum in the third quarter of 2024 and this growth may accelerate further in the future.

Supporting the idea that decentralized prediction markets can give more accurate results than traditional surveys, Elon Musk points out that platforms such as Polymarket allow users to bet on the results of specific events with stablecoins.

As the largest decentralized prediction market, Polymarket has a market share of over 99% as of September 2024. According to the CoinGecko report, 46% of Polymarket’s total volume since the beginning of the year consists of bets on the US presidential elections.

It is stated that approximately 1.7 billion dollars worth of bets have been made on who will be the winner in the US presidential elections since the beginning of 2024.

In the third quarter of 2024, betting volume on Polymarket increased by 713%, while the number of transactions increased by an even greater 848%. This increase shows that users have a great interest in the US presidential elections and the activity in the prediction markets is increasing. Additionally, according to DefiLlama data, the total locked value (TVL) in Polymarket has exceeded $172 million. This further strengthens the platform’s leading position in the rapidly growing decentralized prediction markets.

Bets on Polymarket focus specifically on the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the data, Trump currently has an eight-point lead over Harris.

The odds that changed in favor of Trump on October 4 show that Trump was ahead by more than 10 points as of October 12. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s probability of winning the 2024 elections is estimated at 53.8%, while this rate for Harris remains at 45.3%.

These data reveal the power of prediction markets to influence expectations about elections and the interest in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. As Elon Musk points out, decentralized prediction markets emerge as an alternative to traditional survey systems, with mass participation and open data structure.

As we move towards the 2024 US presidential elections, these markets are expected to attract even more attention and play an influential role.