The behavior of top bettors on Polymarket has raised concerns about the possibility of manipulation of the accuracy of this decentralized prediction market.

Former President Donald Trump’s increasing chances in the 2024 US presidential election were allegedly significantly affected by large bets made by a Polymarket user named “Fredi9999”.

Fredi9999 gained attention by betting over $20 million in favor of Trump. This development emerged after Trump’s probability of winning on Polymarket reached a record high of 60.2% on October 16.

Trump’s rising fortunes have raised questions from some who find it difficult to explain this shift in public opinion that is unconnected to real-world events. Alex Momot, founder and CEO of Peanut Trade, evaluated the situation and said:

“The situation at Polymarket is now affecting the real world. Many people believe what they see on the platform. “The upcoming US presidential election will be an important example to evaluate the reliability of prediction markets.”

As the election approaches, it becomes increasingly important to examine possible manipulations in the prediction markets, especially with less than three weeks until Election Day. Fredi allegedly significantly influenced the price of the Trump prediction market. The political bettor, nicknamed Domer, emphasized the strategy behind this situation, stating that Fredi could control the four major Trump investors in Polymarket.

Domer made the following statements in an X post on October 16:

“Accounts are depositing huge sums of money from Kraken and starting betting on Trump just about everywhere. The account named Theo made a large deposit and bet that Trump would win the popular vote, increasing the odds from 26% to 39% in a matter of hours.”

The fact that these accounts deposited large amounts of money, such as $1 million or $500,000, strengthens the claim that these are strategic moves to increase Trump’s chances.

When asked about the major investor in Polymarket, Domer told Cointelegraph:

“I think this is a Trump supporter who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. “As the price rises, he becomes more confident and enters a confirmation bias cycle, with each new piece of information increasing his confidence.”

Alex Momot expressed concern that Polymarket’s increasing influence may be open to manipulation:

“It is not surprising that someone tries to manipulate the platform using financial resources. The situation we see now may become more common with each larger bet. “We will witness more allegations of multiple account usage and fake addresses.”

But billionaire Elon Musk believes decentralized prediction markets can predict election results more accurately than traditional polls. Musk made these statements after recently increasing his support for Trump.

Trump’s potential chances of victory are also rising in traditional betting markets in line with Polymarket odds, but at a lower level.

At 11:19 UTC on October 18, Trump’s odds on Polymarket were recorded at 60.7%. At the same time, Trump’s chances were calculated at 58.8% at Betfair, 57% at Kalshi, 56% at Predictit and 58% at Smarkets.

According to the aggregate betting odds, Trump’s chance of winning is 58.1%, while Kamala Harris’s chance currently appears to be 40.4%. This data was compiled by RealClearPolling.