Kalshi Victory in US Prediction Market
The prediction market site opposed the CFTC's request for a two-week stay, stating to the court that it "invested its future in these markets."
After winning a lawsuit against its regulator, US-based prediction market platform Kalshi said its future depends on its ability to list election betting contracts before Americans cast their votes on November 5.
In a court filing Sunday, the New York-based company opposed an emergency request from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prohibit it from listing such contracts for another 14 days. Kalshi stated that this request was “unfounded” and that accepting it would cause “irreparable harm” to the company.
“This delay – which the agency will surely try to turn into another delay, then another – would be devastating for Kalshi because the company has invested its future in this case and these markets,” the company said.
Last year, the CFTC barred Kalshi from listing conventions about which party would control both houses of Congress after the election. The agency said such contracts would amount to illegal gambling and would be “contrary to the public interest.” Kalshi later filed a lawsuit, calling the decision “arbitrary and capricious.”
In a decision handed down Friday, Judge Jia M. Cobb ruled in Kalshi’s favor but did not explain her reasoning; He said he would explain this later. He did not give any information about when the reasoned decision would be published.
Kalshi enthusiastically declared his victory on his website: “We did it! US election markets are coming to Kalshi.”
A few hours later, the CFTC granted Cobb a 14-day stay of enforcement after issuing its decision. The agency stated that it could not understand whether to object to the decision without knowing the reason.
If passed, this stay would mean Kalshi would not be able to list election markets until late September at the earliest. The company, which concludes transactions in US dollars, has been deprived of this year’s election betting craze.
Kalshi said, “The Commission lost fairly in law” and added, “It should not steal the procedural victory while the clock is not ticking after the defeat.”
Kalshi is the only prediction market in the US regulated by the CFTC. It lists contracts on events ranging from whether U.S. students’ test scores will improve to how much Bitcoin will rise this year. (To be clear: Transactions are settled in dollars.)
PredictIt, a former US site that settles bets with fiat money, lists election contracts under a narrow regulatory exemption. Polymarket, this year’s booming success story in prediction markets and cryptocurrencies, is barred from doing business with U.S. residents under an agreement with the CFTC.
Despite this, PredictIt and Polymarket told the court that they carried out “illegal operations” against Kalshi on Sunday and said, “While Kalshi was waiting for the case to be concluded, unregulated operations such as Polymarket used this time to dominate the market.”
“Further delay could make it impossible for Kalshi to compete meaningfully in this space,” Kalshi said.
In amicus briefs filed with the court and in comment letters to a related CFTC proposal, academics, investors, businesses, and other parties argued that election contracts offer ways to hedge risk and provide valuable forecasting information to the public.
“The public has been deprived of these benefits for more than a year while the CFTC’s illegal order has been in effect,” Kalshi said, “And with the election now less than 60 days away, there has never been a more important time for these benefits to become available.”
Meanwhile, Better Markets, a lobbying group that opposes Kalshi’s plan, called the judge’s ruling in Kalshi’s favor on Friday a “Dangerous Step into Gambling on US Elections, a Threat to Democracy and the Integrity of Our Markets.”