Finally, Singapore and Thailand decided to prohibit Polymarket in their judicial fields and considered this platform as another gambling site.

This argument on the surface seems logical. The fact that Polymarket includes sports forecast markets makes it look like a competitor of worldwide licensed betting sites.

However, even the hardest critics of the forecast markets acknowledge that it offers a value as a risk of risk protection against events such as elections or war. On the other hand, the result of a sports match does not have a material effect as a choice or war.

However, according to New York -based crypto lawyer Aaron Brogan, the argument that only a web3 version of the estimation markets is inadequate.

“If you are a gambling product licensed by a state, you hold one side of the bets. Essentially, you bet against your users, “says Brogan.

“You create bets and offer certain rates to users. Whether you earn money depends on the rates you set.”

The estimation markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi act as neutral intermediaries and make money with transaction fees by pairing transactions without taking sides.

“These markets do not hold one side of the bet, which changes the incentives and makes the product completely different, B said Broman.

He also adds that forecasting markets do not exclude successful users such as the prohibition of card counting professionals.

“Estimation markets are not gambling because they are not designed to be gambling due to their structures, Brog said Brogan, who argues that these platforms are vehicles that serve the public interest.

In the USA, online gambling license was a very challenging process. However, new players such as Draftkings, or traditional betting giants such as MGM, have not focus on the forecasting markets issued on a state basis?

According to Brogan, the answer is in the regulatory frame. The estimated markets recorded in the US as “Designated Contract Markets” (DCM) are included in the federal regulations, which invalidates state gambling laws.

“Federal laws in the United States are prioritized on state laws, B said Brogan. “Commodity Exchange ACT (Commodity Stock Exchange Law) clearly states that the derivatives recorded as federals are not subject to state regulations. If you are federal registered, the states cannot regulate you. ”

Kalshi seems to rely on this argument. Kalshi, who actively worked actively to sign up for CFTC (Commodity Futures Commission), launched Super Bowl forecasting markets after fighting against the first initiatives to block the election forecast markets. However, this strategy may not apply to all competitors.

“For example, Polymarket is not registered in the USA. For this reason, the states can go to the founder and say, ‘You make sports bets easier, this is a crime in our state, and may initiate legal proceedings. However, registered stock exchanges do not face such problems because of their federal status, B said Brogan.

Although Polymarket and Kalshi are the most well -known names in the industry, there are many new players in this field. One of them is the crypto exchange crypto.com, which reges itself as a DCM and then started Crypto.com Sports.

Brogan says that if the CFTC does not take action within 24 hours after the application, the applicant can consider it as approval.

“If these platforms become widespread and CFTC does not take action, which they have not done so far, these platforms will largely leave traditional betting sites behind. This is a $ 21 billion sector and this new product will be much better, ”he completes his words.