In its latest publication, on-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted the significant difference between the 2024 peak and the 2021 peak achieved following spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows. The basis of this difference lies in the difference in the behavior of investors regarding their positions in derivative markets.

Checkmate points out that liquidations follow a different course than in 2021. Liquidation refers to the forced closure of a derivative market contract when it accumulates a certain amount of losses. Liquidations occur frequently during periods of high volatility.

The chart shared by the analyst shows that long liquidations are dominant at the 2021 peaks. This shows that investors are overly optimistic and think that the price will only continue to rise. Investors added more leverage to the market by opening long positions as the price rose. Although this increased profits if the upward move continued, the risk of liquidation also increased significantly when the market reversed.

However, the situation is different during the rise in 2024. During this period, short liquidations dominated. This shows that, unlike 2021, investors are skeptical that the rise will not continue and think the price will fall. Opening a short position as the price rises offers the opportunity to make a profit when the price falls. However, if the market does not reverse and the price continues to rise, investors who open short positions will incur losses and face the risk of liquidation.

Apart from the difference highlighted by Checkmate, another analyst, Maartunn, also points out another metric in his X post that is similar to Bitcoin’s previous peaks. This metric is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).

CDD is a measure that shows how much of the coins that are dormant in the market are moving. When a coin is moved, the amount of the coin is multiplied by the amount of time that has passed since the last movement of that coin. The CDD value is calculated by adding the obtained value. High CDD levels indicate that coins that have been dormant for a long time are being traded in significant quantities.

Maartunn states that CDD has reached peak levels recently, and the Bitcoin price usually peaks in the same time period. While this has been true for some past peaks, it took months for the price to peak after CDD peaked at the 2021 peak.

However, the difference in timing between the CDD and the price peak should also be taken into account. The time frame between a CDD peak in 2024 and a future Bitcoin peak remains unclear. This may also indicate that it may be premature to expect a peak in the near future. Bitcoin’s 2024 rise follows a different course than the 2021 bull run. Liquidation trends in derivatives markets and metrics such as CDD point to differences in investor behavior and market psychology.