Expectations for Fed Policy Shake the Crypto Market
US non-farm employment data, which was below expectations, caused attention in the cryptocurrency and stock markets to be turned back to the policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
This weak data directly affected the markets by increasing the expectation that the Fed could further reduce interest rates and turn to monetary expansion. While Bitcoin dropped from approximately $72,500 to $70,000 after the announcement, Ethereum lost more than 3% in value in the last 24 hours, falling to $2,500.
While the total value of the cryptocurrency market decreased to 2.45 trillion dollars, the crypto fear and greed index decreased from 65 points to 57. On the other hand, US stock index futures reacted positively, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gaining 230, 33 and 130 points respectively.
Only 12,000 jobs were added in the US economy in October, according to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. This figure represents a large decrease compared to the 223,000 job gain in September and was well below market expectations.
While the median estimate of economists was around 106,000, even the value of 115,000 announced by private sector data ADP remained well above the real figure.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics linked this poor performance in employment growth to recent hurricanes in the United States and strikes at major employers such as Boeing. When the data is examined, it is seen that production sector employment decreased by 46,000, while public sector employment increased by 40,000.
The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, in line with strong wage growth; Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% monthly and 4.0% annually.
Market experts state that low employment data could be positive for the cryptocurrency and stock markets because the weak data opened the door to the Fed’s dovish policies and strengthened the expectations for an interest rate cut. This may cause capital to be directed towards risky assets such as crypto.
This data, published in October, came to the fore just before the US elections and could potentially provide an advantage to Donald Trump, who made pro-cryptocurrency statements.
Trump had previously proposed appointing a crypto industry-friendly figure to head the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Under current SEC chairman Gary Gensler, the SEC has been criticized for heavy-handed regulatory enforcement.
The recent increase in pressure on crypto startups such as Immutable X (Immutable), a gaming-focused layer-2 network, could further increase interest in Trump’s plans to reform the SEC.
Following the decline in employment data, there was a decline in US bond yields, increasing the expectation that the Fed may continue to reduce interest rates. Analysts predict that the Fed may reduce interest rates to 3.50% in 2025; This rate represents a significantly lower level than the current level of 5.0%.
The Fed’s tendency to lower interest rates allows investors to switch from money market funds to risky assets, which creates a positive scenario especially for cryptocurrencies and stocks such as Bitcoin. The recent increase in demand for Bitcoin ETFs stands out as a reflection of this trend.
Weak nonfarm payrolls data in the US has presented a host of new opportunities for crypto and equity markets. While investors expect capital flows to turn towards Bitcoin and other risky assets due to the influence of dovish Fed policies, this may lead to increased volatility in the markets.