Bitcoin has traded mostly between $60,000 and $70,000 since mid-March. Bitcoin’s rally, which started in October last year, has stalled, likely due to diminished expectations of a Fed rate cut and the rise in the value of the US dollar against other major fiat currencies.

According to data from the TradingView platform, DXY rose at 102.35 on March 8 and reached its five-month peak of 106.52 last week. It has since recorded a slight decline to 105.70, giving hope to crypto investors.

Value investor Mike Alfred, founder and managing partner of the Alpine Fox LP value fund, said on Tuesday: “The DXY dollar index hit resistance at 106 as predicted and started to turn down. A move towards 102-103 will turbocharge this rise. In the short term “The timing for Bitcoin to reach $90,000 makes sense. Long term, I expect DXY to be at 92 by the end of 2025.” said.

Jan Happel and Yan Allemann, co-founders of Glassnode, under the pseudonym Negentropic on However, some banks do not foresee the dollar weakening in the near future. According to Societe Generale’s Cross-Asset Research Team led by Kit Juckes, the Fed is now unlikely to cut rates before 2025, suggesting DXY could top out somewhere between 107 and 110.

“If the market now adjusts to our forecast of lower interest rates (and no further rate hikes) in Q1 2025, then the top 2-year interest rate would be 5-5%,” the research team wrote in an April 18 client note. “It should be around 25, indicating a limited DXY rise. Overall, if the Fed waits for the rest of this year and other central banks cut rates as expected, the DXY level should be in the 107-110 range.” said.

In October, when DXY broke above 107 and Bitcoin began its upward trend, markets expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024. Currently, markets expect only two interest rate cuts this year. Another point that crypto investors should pay attention to is the possible escalation of the trade war between the USA and China. This could support the US dollar.

Meanwhile, former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has proposed imposing tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports. According to Barclays, this could increase the value of the dollar.

“U.S. tariffs tend to support the dollar through the import substitution channel, but how much the exchange rate is affected depends largely on the details,” Barclays’ currency strategy team wrote in a client note last week. said.

Barclays tested the scenario of the US imposing 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports and concluded that DXY could gain 3% if Trump wins the election later this year.