Deribit, one of the leading cryptocurrency derivative exchanges, points out that volatility in the market will increase with the upcoming option expiration dates. A total of $10.18 billion worth of options will expire on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday, June 28. Of this amount, $6.68 billion consists of Bitcoin (BTC) options and $3.5 billion consists of Ethereum (ETH) options.

Notably, the total value of these options represents more than 40% of the current open positions on Deribit. The term open position refers to option contracts that have not yet been closed. This high rate means that approaching expiration dates can cause significant volatility in the market.

Major quarterly option expirations typically lead to an increase in trading volumes. This causes market prices to become more unpredictable. The main reason for this is the volatility experienced in the supply and demand balance when investors close or transfer their positions.

Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers makes striking comments about the effects of upcoming expiration dates in an interview with Coindesk. Strijers states that they expect more than 25% of open positions on Deribit to end in-the-money on the expiration date.

This means that the owners of these options will make a profit. In-the-money options refer to the scenario in which exercising the right to buy or sell the option will be profitable for the investor as of the specified expiration date.

Strijers also emphasizes that the nominal value of the total options is over $10 billion. Notional value is the value equal to the market value of the underlying asset (Bitcoin or Ethereum) that an options contract represents.

So, what attitude do investors take as the expiration date of options with such high amounts in the market approaches? According to data tracked by Amberdata, investors are showing more interest in near-term and long-term “call” options than put options.

“Call” options give the investor the right to buy the underlying asset at a price determined on or before a certain date, while “put” options offer the right to sell. This means that investors predict that cryptocurrency prices will rise.

However, Strijers adds that a downward trend is observed in option trends in the short term. This shows that investors predict that there may be a decline in the market in the near future. However, Strijers emphasizes that this downward trend may be short-term and investors expect a positive change in the medium term for Bitcoin until July 12 and for Ethereum until July 5.

As a result, option expiration dates on Deribit can cause significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. While a large amount of options are expected to expire in-the-money, there are also signals that investors foresee an increase in the market in the medium term.

However, a potential decline in the short term may create uncertainty in the market. This uncertainty may cause investors to be cautious and postpone their trading decisions.

On the other hand, Mt. Gox coins transfer is also considered an important factor that will affect the market. Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014 and a large amount of Bitcoin was withdrawn from the market. There are concerns that the transfer of these coins will cause a supply shock to the market and affect prices downwards.

In general, option expiration dates on Deribit and Mt. Gox coins indicate an active period in the cryptocurrency market. During this period, investors need to follow the market closely, take a cautious approach and make investment decisions carefully.