Veteran chart analyst and Factor LLC CEO Peter Brandt, who was previously quite optimistic about Bitcoin, changed course. In a report shared with CoinDesk, he suggested that Bitcoin’s upward trajectory may have reached its peak. This is in contrast to the bull cycle predicted in February that could start from bear market bottoms in November 2022 and extend into September 2025, with prices rising as high as $200,000.

The latest estimate is based on a statistical concept called “exponential decay,” which describes the process of reducing a quantity by a certain percentage.

“Bitcoin has historically traded in a roughly 4-year bull/bear cycle typically associated with halving events. There have been three major bull market cycles since the first bull cycle, with each cycle being 80% less strong than its predecessor in terms of price multiples gained,” Brandt said. said.

“If the 80% decay constant holds, Bitcoin’s [record] peak of $73,835 on March 14, 2024 has already reached a price consistent with historical Exponential Decay,” he added.

Brandt predicted that Bitcoin would fall below $4,000 in 2018.

The chart shows the magnitude or multiples of gains of previous Bitcoin bull runs and exponential declines. During the initial rise, prices rose from $0.01 to $31.91, an increase of 3,391 times in less than two years. Subsequent bull markets lasted longer but were smaller scale and consistently experienced an exponential decline of roughly 80%.

Bitcoin’s rise to record highs above $73,000 in March marked a 79.1% increase from the bear market bottom of $15,473 reached after the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX in November 2022.

So, if exponential decay theory is any guide, the bull market may be over.

However, past data does not guarantee future results, especially as historically, the Bitcoin blockchain’s quadrennial mining reward halving events have reinforced bull market trends. The fourth reward halving took place on April 20, reducing the supply emission rate per block from 6.5 BTC to 3,125 BTC.

Therefore, the general consensus of the crypto community is that Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation between $60,000 and $70,000 will be resolved by a bullish move.

“The ‘Pre/Post Halving’ cycle structure suggests that the current bull trend will reach a peak in the $140,000 to $160,000 range in late summer/early fall 2025,” Brandt said, adding that this thesis remains his main motivation for Bitcoin ownership.

However, Brandt said the exponential decay theory will remain on his radar until evidence emerges that “such a decline will not affect the bull trend that begins in November 2022.”