When the Bitcoin price drops suddenly and massively, many theories are usually put forward. Usual suspects include government regulation, the possibility of exchanges manipulating prices, Bitcoin whales manipulating prices, traders using excessive leverage, and some conspiracy theories such as Tether (USDT).

Between the 15th and 18th of August, the price of Bitcoin experienced a significant 12% drop. This followed a pattern seen before, and several reasons have been suggested by analysts and experts.

Unfortunately, due to the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies and the lack of transparency between exchanges, verifying whether a particular asset is influencing price action is a difficult task.

On August 11, Ceni, the co-founder of Ceni Capital, made a partially correct prediction. Ceni predicted that the price of Bitcoin would fall below $29,000, predicting that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would delay its decision regarding the ARK Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

However, the statistical basis is less certain as this forecast does not indicate the timing of this event or the exact support level.

Still, Ceni pointed to BlackRock as a potential cause of Bitcoin’s collapse, and this claim deserves serious investigation.

BlackRock’s idea of ​​taking advantage of the lower Bitcoin price before the start of the spot Bitcoin ETF is not as simple as it sounds. The concept that a low Bitcoin price could lead to increased profitability following an ETF launch may be counter-intuitive, but this may not be in line with BlackRock’s broader interests.

Primarily, BlackRock has built a reputation as a respected financial institution based on its commitment to market stability and investor confidence. A sudden and significant drop in Bitcoin’s value could undermine the overall credibility of the cryptocurrency market, something BlackRock would like to avoid. The priority of maintaining the legitimacy of the market may precede any immediate gains from a low Bitcoin price.

Second, getting regulatory approval for the launch of any financial product plays a critical role, especially in the cryptocurrency space. The SEC carefully considers the potential for market manipulation and investor protection measures. Engaging in activities that could be perceived as price manipulation could jeopardize BlackRock’s chances of securing the necessary regulatory approvals for its ETF offering.

Finally, building investor confidence is extremely important when promoting any investment product, especially when introducing a new product like the Bitcoin ETF. A sudden drop in the price of Bitcoin can erode confidence among investors, not just for the asset class but for the ETF as well.

Therefore, BlackRock’s interests likely lie in launching the ETF during a period of positive sentiment so investors feel confident about its future earnings potential.