“I expect +1.5-Sigma ($6,000 to $8,000 price range) as a result of post-election price reaction,” said Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at crypto data tracking platform Amberdata.

This estimate is based on 112% annualized forward volatility derived from the Deribit options trade on November 6th, which suggests a price swing of $4,000 in either direction. The positive 1.5-sigma portion of this fluctuation represents a price change in the range of $6,000 to $8,000.

Bitcoin last saw a similar price swing, falling to the $50,000 level in early August, when its “risk-on” appetite led to widespread risk aversion as carrier traders closed out positions.

Magadini notes that recent reports show that Republican candidate Donald Trump, perceived as crypto-friendly, and his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris, are in a tight race in seven swing states.

The 50%-50% odds indicate that neither outcome will surprise the markets, implying that a positive 3-sigma move (three standard deviations from the mean in a normal distribution) is unlikely. A positive 3-sigma movement indicates an extreme event.

Similarly, the likelihood of a negative 1-sigma move or minimal price move is questionable, as 50%-50% odds make it difficult for traders to price the election outcome in advance. The election will be held on Tuesday and the results are expected to be announced on Friday.

It should be remembered that volatility is two-way, meaning expected price fluctuations can occur in either direction.

However, options traders are preparing for the bullish bet by purchasing $70,000, $85,000 and $90,000 call options on Deribit and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. (An increase of $8,000 from BTC’s market price of $68,800 would mean new record highs.)

Therefore, call options are trading more expensive than puts on volatility, a sign of bullish sentiment, according to Joshua Lim.

“Bitcoin call options are priced higher as the spot price falls this weekend due to weaker than expected polls for Trump,” said Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading firm and liquidity provider Arbelos Markets.

Lim added that volatilities are pricing in a 7%-8% move around the critical events of the week, mainly including the Fed interest rate decision on Thursday and the expected US election result on Friday.

Ethereum’s (ETH) native token, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has historically been more volatile than BTC, and that’s unlikely to change with the US election.

According to on-chain options listed on decentralized exchange Derive, ETH has a 68% chance of experiencing price volatility of 9.35% to 10.19%, while BTC is expected to see volatility of 8.97% to 9.85%.

A 10% volatility in ETH represents a $247 move in the $2,470 market price and a 10% move in BTC represents a $6,800 move.

DEX traders are also expecting bullish volatility. As of Sunday, total call option open interest was recorded as 885 open put option contracts, compared to 1,179 contracts; This shows a bullish trend.

“As the election approaches, these numbers are critical for traders looking to navigate the growing uncertainty in crypto markets,” said Nick Forster, founder of Derive. “It is a watershed moment for on-chain options trading and the sophisticated strategies traders are employing to hedge against or capitalize on expected volatility.” “It shows,” he said.