The Bitcoin market continues to surprise investors. The long-awaited traditional bull market correction has yet to occur, raising questions about the current health and future course of the market. Checkmate, the on-chain analyst of the Glassnode platform, revealed in his X post dated April 5 that Bitcoin’s recent price declines are not even close to 20%.

This creates an interesting contradiction in the Bitcoin market. On the one hand, Bitcoin recently fell below its new high of $74,000. But on the other hand, this decrease is quite slight in percentage terms. Checkmate says we can see the situation even more clearly when we compare it with historical bull markets. Sharing data on his charting tool Checkonchain, the analyst emphasizes that despite mass profit taking and reactionary sales at the peak, sellers were able to pull the market down by at most 20%. This happened only once, in September last year, and subsequent pullbacks did not exceed 15.8%.

“This is still my favorite Bitcoin chart of this cycle,” Checkmate comments. “The market is absorbing hundreds of millions of dollars of selling pressure, and bear market investors still haven’t managed to pull off a 20% pullback,” he says, describing how resilient the market is now.

However, this may not mean that there will not be a harsher retreat in the future. Checkmate admits that statistics often repeat history, but says, “What is surprising is that such a retreat has not occurred so far.” In this case, investors need to be cautious and prepared for sudden movements in the market.

There are some factors affecting these interesting developments in the Bitcoin market. The first is the rise of US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have purchased more than 500,000 Bitcoins since its launch in January. This strong buying pressure, combined with other positive developments such as Bitcoin reserves on exchanges reaching multi-year lows, is increasing bullish sentiment for prices to re-enter a period of upward exploration.

However, this situation needs to be approached with a cautious perspective. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, cautions investors not to be overly optimistic when assessing the record-breaking performance of ETFs this week. “Interest in ETFs is really high, but without these funds Bitcoin would probably be trading around $30,000 right now. So we need to look at the big picture,” one X writes in a post. Balchunas also adds that ETF products may experience net drawdowns from time to time, and this is standard investor behavior.

As a result, the Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a period of uncertainty. The expected pullback has not occurred yet and the market looks strong in the short term. However, investors should take a cautious approach, paying attention to both the history of past cycles and new factors in the market. The course of Bitcoin prices and the general health of the market should be closely monitored in the coming periods.