Before the halving, it was predicted that there would be a significant decrease in Bitcoin mining revenues. The element that was seen as a source of hope to compensate for this loss was the launch of Casey Rodarmor’s Runes protocol, which aims to create fungible tokens on Bitcoin. The protocol, which came into effect at the same time as the halving, was expected to create a high amount of transactions on the network and therefore increase miner revenues. Another factor supporting this expectation was the hashprice index created by Luxor. This index, which calculates how much a miner can earn when he has a certain hashrate, was at $ 182.98/hash/day before the halving, but has now fallen to $ 81. This decline shows that it has fallen even below the pre-halving level and confirms the concerns about miner revenues.

But things didn’t go according to plan. The prediction that the Runes protocol would increase miner revenues by increasing network activity was disappointed. Magic Eden data reveals that the base prices of the runestone NFT collection dropped by almost 50% in the first days after the event. This decrease clearly shows that the high transaction volume and therefore high transaction fees expected from the Runes protocol did not occur.

In contrast, prices for turn-based collections like Bitcoin Pullets and NodeMonkes increased by 11% and 8% respectively, according to CoinGecko data. Although this indicates that interest in the NFT market is shifting to different areas, turn-based collections also generate high transaction fees. This suggests that the decline in transaction fees can also be partially explained by the divergence in the NFT market.

Following the Bitcoin halving, the market currently seems to be going through a stagnant period. The stability in Bitcoin prices, when considered together with the decline in high transaction fees, may suggest that investors are turning to a wait-and-see approach. This may indicate that supply and demand dynamics have now reached an equilibrium point.

The fact that the Runes protocol does not have the hoped-for effect once again emphasizes the dynamic structure and ever-changing trends of the cryptocurrency market. This event highlights the importance of focusing on the Bitcoin network’s scalability solutions and sustainability of miner revenues in preparation for future block reward halvings. Although the halving is a mechanism that will support price growth in the long term by reducing the supply of Bitcoin, mining activities must be sustainable for the network to continue operating in a healthy and secure manner.

At this point, it is necessary to pay attention to the competition between Bitcoin and Ethereum. Ethereum is trying to keep transaction fees under control with its work on scalability solutions. This could become an important competitive element for Bitcoin in the future, considering that investors will be more sensitive to transaction fees.

As a result, the Bitcoin post-halving period can be considered a learning process for the cryptocurrency market. The uncertainties brought about by the halving may also cause investors to turn their attention to alternative cryptocurrencies. This may negatively affect Bitcoin’s market dominance in the short term. However, Bitcoin’s long-term value is still strongly maintained due to both its limited supply and its reliable and decentralized nature.

In the post-halving period, alternative solutions to reduce transaction fees of the Bitcoin network may also come to the fore. The successes of past soft forks (software updates) such as SegWit and Taproot prove the adaptability of the Bitcoin network. In this context, there is a possibility that offers that provide transaction privacy and scalability, such as MimbleWimble and Confidential Transactions, will be integrated into the Bitcoin network in the future.

As a result, the post-Bitcoin halving period could mean a bumpy ride for the cryptocurrency market. In the short term, factors such as investors’ wait-and-see approach, decline in transaction fees, and diversification in the NFT market may create a sense of stagnation in the market. However, in the long term, Bitcoin’s limited supply, reliable structure, and the adaptability of the network may pave the way for its value to be maintained and potentially increased. In this process, the course of competition between Bitcoin and Ethereum and the Bitcoin network’s focus on scalability solutions stand out as important factors shaping the future of the cryptocurrency market.