Although Bitcoin approached the highest level of all time in May, a strong rally exhibited, according to analysts, it can slow down in the third quarter in terms of performance. The high optimism, which is seen in social media and investor expectations, can prevent Bitcoin from breaking new records in the short term. On the other hand, the process of Ethereum’s “coming back from behind” is gaining momentum.

📉 “Expectation” trap in Bitcoin

Centimeter analyst Brian Quinlivan said to Cointlegraph for a high expectation for the summit of all time on social media for Bitcoin. However, such widespread optimism caused the market to move in the opposite direction:

“The market usually moves in contrast to the expectation of the individual investor. Therefore, we may not be ready for a new wave of rise yet.”

Considering that Bitcoin is currently traded at $ 109,679 and this price reached on May 22, the $ 111,970 ADH (All-Time High) is only 2.1 %lower than the level of 2.1 %lower than that.

Quinlivan adds that this “frustration” feeling can weaken small investors, but then a “sudden rise” can come.

📊 seasonal risks and macroeconomic uncertainty

Dr. Derive Research Sean Dawson points out that Bitcoin has historically performance in the third quarter. Since 2013, the Q3 period has only brought an average of 6.03 %for Bitcoin, while the following 4th quarter has been the most powerful period: 85.42 %average return.

According to Dawson, a similar scenario is possible this summer. In particular, the Fed’s tendency to keep fixed despite political pressures to reduce interest rates can reduce Bitcoin’s charm in the short term:

“Fixing interest rates may suppress the expectation of aggressive return in risky assets.”

The CME’s Fedwatch vehicle reflects the expectation that interest rates will remain constant at the meeting on June 18th.

🟣 Increased interest in Ethereum: “Delay but strong”

Quinlivan said that the market’s attention is increasingly shifting to Ethereum. Ethereum has shown a strong recovery since its bottom with $ 1,472 on April 9, and has reached $ 2,793.

Behind this recovery lies in Ethereum’s late joining the market cycle and investors searching for new opportunities. “Ethereum had reached maximum pessimism a few months ago. This triggered potential recovery,” Quinlivan said.

In recent weeks, Ethereum’s performance leaving Bitcoin behind, while corporate investor interest and Tokinization trend gives positive signals for ETH. As it will be recalled, only 800 million dollars in the last 2 weeks had entered the ETHERUM ETFs.

☀️ Summer Effect: Process Volumes may decrease

Sean Dawson, in the coming weeks with the effect of the summer months, stressed that the decrease in process volumes. In the Northern Hemisphere, investors go on holiday, increasing the likelihood of horizontal movement or sudden decrease in crypto markets:

“With the arrival of summer, profit realization may increase and the market may become stagnant in the short term.”

📌 Summary: Does Ethereum create an opportunity when Bitcoin pauses?

Bitcoin is still having difficulty reaching the new summit while watching

The fact that market expectations are extremely “bulls” can cause an opposite reaction.

Ethereum attracts the attention of investor with its “delayed strengthening” signals

Historically weak for Bitcoin, but the 4th quarter can be strong

Volume decreases and profit sales are expected in the summer months