Despite the impressive 47 %rise in the year throughout the year, Bitcoin faces a critical threat in the short term: the uncertainty of the United States for two months.

Swyftx Chief Analyst Pav Hundal said that the current political environment carries a “silent but destructive threat to Bitcoin:

“The biggest threat to the bulls right now, nothing changes. Tariff blackmail cycle continues and if the markets remain locked, BTC can go down to $ 100,000 again.”

📉 What does the data say?

Bitcoin is currently trading at $ 104,487.

When Trump raised the tariffs in February, the BTC hanged under $ 100,000 and stayed there for 3 months.

On May 28, the US International Court of Commerce blocked Trump’s tariffs, but immediately after steel and aluminum tariffs were increased to 50 %.

🏦 Fed, “Data waiting”: Interest decision is suspended

According to Hundal, the Federal Reserve is currently a “data -dependent” in monetary policy due to uncertainty.

“Hard economic data is expected for interest rate reduction. If it takes time to clarify the tariff effect, growth may slow down.”

The reason why the FED keeps the interest rates fixed by 4.25 - 4.50 %is these risks:

Removal from inflation target

Probability of unemployment

🔼 Best Screenplay: 120,000 dollars of June

According to Hundal, the termination of the political rhetoric on tariffs can open a clear rise path to Bitcoin.

“Such a dissolution environment can carry BTC to $ 120,000 by the end of June.”

Similarly, Bitfinex analysts say that the BTC can test over 115,000 dollars in July if the institutional procurement interest continues and the US labor force data are weak.

📊 Macro developments should be closely monitored

Prolongation of tariff uncertainty → Bitcoin <100k

Tariff Solving + Weak Labor Data → Bitcoin> 115–120K

Fed’s 2% away from inflation target → Edition for crypto

Hundal summarizes the situation as follows:

“The US is currently at a macroeconomic crossroads.