In Bitcoin, the contraction of supply deepens: “Ancient” BTCs exceeded new production
According to the new report of Fidelity Digital Assets, it turned out that 550 BTCs per day into the “ancient supply” category and this has exceeded the new production of 450 BTC per day. These Bitcoins, which have been found to have been kept for 10 years or longer, take a larger part of the supply to the “non -liquid” category. With the increase in institutional demand, 30 %of the BTC supply until 2026 can emerge from the circulation. This trend makes the price target of $ 1 million for Bitcoin more realistic.
Ancient Bitcoin supply is increasing
After 2024 Halving, the number of BTCs held for more than 10 years has exceeded the daily new BTC production.
Currently, 17 %of the total supply is ancient status. This ratio is expected to reach 20 %in 2026 and 25 %in 2034.
This means that the liquid BTC amount in the market is significantly reduced.
🏦 Corporate capital flow is accelerating
According to Bitwise, corporate purchases, which could reach $ 120 billion in 2025 and 300 billion dollars in 2026, can deepen the supply congestion of BTC.
Potential Flows:
Country Scenario that transferred 5 %of gold reserves to BTC: 161.7 billion dollars
US State Funds: 19.6 billion dollars
Retail Management Companies (0.5%): 300 billion dollars
BTC Positions of Double Public Companies: 117.8 billion dollars
In the Taurus scenario: Total flow can exceed $ 426 billion, which can absorb 4 million BTC.
💡 Can BTC go to $ 1 million?
For the price of 1 million dollars of BTC, the market value of about $ 21 trillion is required. (10 times the value of today’s ~ 2.1 trillion dollars)
Historical Halving Cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) brought great rise with supply contraction and demand increase.
The re -formation of the same model supports the price target.
⚠️ Uncertainty and Risks
After the 2024 US elections, ancient supply decreased (10 %of the days decreased).
The BTC supply, which was held for 5 years, fell in 39 %of the post -election days.
This tendency shows that the market can create liquidity even during uncertainty.
Bitcoin’s supply structure strengthens a bull scenario -based bull -based bull scenario, especially with the stable attitude of long -term investors and the orientation of corporate capital. Although the target of $ 1 million is still controversial, data -oriented projections reveal that this target is no longer speculation, but a strategic possibility.
