Bitcoin initially fell following the news of U.S. President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, but rebounded by about 1.5% on the same day, reaching a daily high of $68,364, according to Bitstamp data. The initial drop in Bitcoin’s price was my immediate reaction to the uncertainty created by Biden’s decision, Bitfinex analysts say:

“After Biden’s announcement, Bitcoin initially dropped 3%, but then recovered. This was an immediate reaction to temporary uncertainty in the market. By Monday morning, it had risen 0.9% over the previous 24 hours to surpass $68,000, close to the all-time high of $73,666 reached in March.”

The results of the US elections could have significant impacts on the crypto industry in the world’s largest economy and could also impact regulatory outcomes in other regions.

Bitfinex analysts noted that Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race could be perceived as “neutral to slightly negative in the short term” due to uncertainty about potential policy changes.

On July 23, US Vice President Kamala Harris crossed the support threshold by receiving the commitments of 2,668 of the delegates required for the Democratic Party presidential nomination. However, Harris’ stance on crypto could be a factor of uncertainty for the crypto industry and invite greater regulatory scrutiny, say Bitfinex analysts:

“Harris’ stance on cryptocurrencies is not well documented, so it is difficult to make a definitive prediction. However, Harris’ political positions suggest she tends to focus on consumer protection and financial regulation, which could imply ongoing scrutiny of the crypto market.”

However, billionaire investor Mark Cuban said Harris may be more open to technological innovations and cryptocurrencies than President Joe Biden. Crypto investors are likely to take a more passive approach once Harris clarifies his views on crypto, Bitfinex analysts say:

“Investors may take a wait-and-see approach until Harris’ policies become clearer. “The current administration is focused on regulation of crypto, and a continuation of this approach under Harris may not be immediately positive for the market.”

However, prediction markets continue to show former US President Donald Trump as the candidate most likely to win the election. While 62% of Polymarket users bet on Trump to win the November election, only 35% bet on Harris.